Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
