🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still